EARTH WILL GET HOTTER THAN FEARED

by John Vidal
(copyright) The (Manchester) Guardian Weekly 2-11-2000, page 1

Leading climate scientists now agree that human pollution, mainly from fossil fuels, has added substantially to global warming in the past 50 years and that the Earth is likely to get far hotter than previously predicted.

A summary of the 1,000-page final draft of research by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - a United Nations-sponsored group made up of the world's leading atmosphere scientists - has been sent to governments. It is expected to add urgency to this month's talks on global climate change in The Hague.

The report suggests that the upper range of warming over the next century could be far higher than estimated in 1995. Its worst-case scenario envisages the average global temperature rising by 6C (11F) above the 1990 level. Average temperatures today are 5C (9F) higher than they were at the end of the last ice age. Five years ago the panel predicted that average temperatures would, at worst, rise by 3C (6.3F).

The leaked document is the first major update of climate prediction since 1995, when the panel concluded that there was "a discernible human influence" on the Earth's climate because of the greenhouse effect -caused by the buildup of heat-trapping chemicals in the atmosphere.

The panel has concluded that the burning of fossil fuels and emission of man-made chemicals has "contributed substantially to the observed warming over the last 50 years". The scientists also believe that temperatures could rise far higher and faster than previously predicted if emissions are not curtailed.

Evidence of increased warming has been found in retreating glaciers, thinning polar sea ice, increased precipitation and the big rise in weather-related natural disasters.

Global warming will deeply affect poor countries, leading to huge numbers of refugees, crop failures, and extreme weather. Most emissions of carbon dioxide are from rich countries. The United States is responsible for 23% of CO2 emissions; Britain's 3% is equal to that from all of Africa.

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