|
Global warming could be worst in 10,000 years Scientists predict extreme climate change as Earth heats up from fossil fuel burning TIM RADFORD and PAUL BROWN An international group of scientists has confirmed the worst fears of environmentalists: the Earth's atmosphere could soar by almost 6C by 2100 - a rise unprecedented in the past 10,000 years. The United Nations group reported in Shanghai this week that, in the worst case, the average temperature could rise by 5.8C this century, 2C higher than their original predictions. Sea levels could rise by 88cm by 2100, making tens of millions of people homeless in China's Pearl river delta, Bangladesh, the Nile delta of Egypt, and other low-lying regions. "We see changes in climate, we believe we humans are involved, and we're projecting future climate changes much more significant over the next 100 years than the last 100 years," said Robert Watson, introducing the latest, 1,000-page report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). Klaus Topfer, the head of the UN environment programme, said the report "should ring alarm bells in every national capital and every local community". The 90s was the warmest decade for 1,000 years, said the report. Temperatures rose by an average of 0.6C during the past century, with an increase in floods and droughts. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have risen by 31% since the industrial revolution, and scientists blame the reckless burning of fossil fuels. In one of the ironies of global politics, the scientists issued their report as George Bush - who has said he is not convinced climate change is really happening - took office as United States president. Much of the science behind the report comes from the highest tiers of US and European research. The warnings may kickstart a political process that has been stalled since November when developed nations met at The Hague to agree to cut CO2 emissions by 5.5% by 2010 - well short of the 60% cut scientists say is needed - but the talks collapsed, largely because of US attitudes. The researchers present the "worst case" picture, as well as projections of possible temperature rises if nations cooperate. But the outlook is grim. The area of northern polar sea ice has shrunk by up to 15% in the past 40 years, and the thickness of the ice has fallen by 40%. Snow cover has shrunk by 10% in the past 30 years. The changes predicted would cause coastal areas to be inundated and lead to major population changes. They would end the ski industry in Europe, cause the disappearance of many of the world's glaciers, and have serious effects on agriculture. The growing season for many of the staple crops in Africa would be cut too short for a reliable harvest because of excess heat and lack of moisture, and in Europe the Mediterranean fringe would be too dry for cereal crops. Many of the world's forests would
die because of changes in water supply and increasing heat. Climate models have become far more reliable since the last report in 1995 but there is far greater unanimity among the world's scientists over the issue than among politicians. The report says that the burning of fossil fuels is going to be "the dominant influence" on climate in the next century. The present CO2 concentration has not been exceeded in the past 420,000 years and probably not for 20m years. It is now going up at the rate of 4% a decade. The rate of warming is much
higher than in the 20th century and at any time in the last 10,000 years
since the ice age ended, the report says. |