Unleashing the latent energy in British Columbia's rugged geography could increase the province's electricity supply by as much as 40 per cent without building another dam or a gas-fired generator, says a new B.C. Hydro study.
The study by Hydro's green and alternative energy division examines electricity-generation opportunities ranging from the establishment of hydro turbines on Lower Mainland streams, to wind farms on remote northern mountaintops.
It concludes that harnessing those energy sources would annually yield more electricity than either the Columbia or Peace river systems generate for B.C.
Hydro wants the private sector to develop the technologies, with independent power producers selling their electricity on to the provincial grid.
The study also examines fish and wildlife impacts, public acceptance and commercial viability of alternative projects -- anticipating new jobs and new environmental controversies alike.
The calculations by Hydro's green and alternative energy division are admittedly rough, encompassing proven methods such as wind farming, and developmental technologies such as tidal current.
But the division says the potential exists to annually produce about 18,000 gigawatt hours of electricity.
By contrast Hydro's system of dams and gas-fired thermal generators each year produce roughly 50,000 gigawatt hours of electricity.
"Because of our natural environment, B.C. does have an excellent potential resource," said Hydro green energy engineer Helen Hamilton Harding.
Hamilton Harding cautioned that there is a lot more research ahead -- particularly because the technologies are more expensive to build and operate than Hydro's conventional mix of gas and hydroelectricity.
That would translate to higher consumer prices for electricity -- and in some cases the costs and risks may be too onerous to attract private-sector investment.
"Whether we can actually exploit those technologies as part of the resource mix is uncertain. There needs to be further research on that," Hamilton Harding said.
Hydro green division manager Brenda Goehring said wind, small hydro and biomass (burning of wood waste) are the most competitive, in terms of producing electricity at a commercially acceptable price.
For example, small hydro projects producing almost 11,000 gigawatts could be in service on streams all over the province within three years.
The study finds that about 67 per cent of electricity from those projects would be produced at a cost of less than $0.07 per kilowatt hour -- slightly more than the B.C. retail consumer price, but about $0.04 cheaper than the average price across Canada.
It's also about $0.10 cheaper than the average retail price in major U.S. urban areas.
Prices for some of the other technologies, however, are estimated as high as $0.25 per kilowatt hour -- although the study notes that these prices should fall over time as use expands.
"We see a few immediate opportunities," Goehring said, adding that the study should serve as a guide for future research and development -- and to help prospective entrepreneurs identify opportunities to sell electricity on to the B.C. Hydro grid.
"A diversified portfolio is the way to go in the future," Goehring said.
"It allows you to meet a variety of objectives, so you don't have all your resources coming from one type and leaving you vulnerable to low water or high prices for natural gas."
Goehring said the technologies could never replace conventional hydro or gas generation because they're dependent on weather and tide, providing electricity only as conditions permit.
That means expansion of conventional generation is still part of B.C.'s future, although some Hydro critics are accusing the Crown corporation of failing to put enough emphasis on alternative technologies.
Last week, energy lawyer David Austin blasted Hydro for a recent study that examines opportunities for large-scale expansion of the province's transmission system. The study predicts a looming crunch in the transmission of electricity across the western North American grid, but Austin took it to mean that Hydro is not fully committed to encouraging a green energy sector aimed at serving local needs.
Austin argued that Hydro should be moving away from large-scale industrial approaches to managing the province's electricity supply, and providing greater incentives for smaller- scale projects.
Simon Fraser University energy economist Mark Jaccard made a similar argument, saying that the prediction of a crisis is intended to bolster arguments in favor of an expanded grid.
"The world can unfold in many different ways," Jaccard argued.
"What if society decided that grid expansion was undesirable? This would simply swing the economics slightly in favour of greater on-site generation -- which would be cogeneration, local small hydro, local wood waste, local municipal waste, photovoltaics, etc. -- and greater energy efficiency.