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Predictions of California-style brownouts plaguing Vancouver Island by the winter of 2004 may have been premature.

B.C. Hydro forecast brownouts a year ago as the utility made its case for construction of a $380-million natural-gas-fired power plant at Duke Point in Nanaimo.

But Hydro has now put off indefinitely its application for a certificate of public convenience and necessity for the plant, citing the success of power conservation efforts, less demand because of idled sawmills, and the prospect of private companies building their own generating facilities.

The certificate was a requirement of the provincial government's new energy plan. Hydro had planned to file it with the B.C. Utilities Commission on Wednesday.

"The fact of the matter is the plant is still needed. There's no question it will go ahead, it's just a matter of when," said Hydro spokeswoman Elisha Odowichuk. "Electricity demand on Vancouver Island continues to grow."

Hydro has put off filing the application until it reviews proposals for on-site power generation from companies that operate pulp mills, sawmills, smelters and the like. Those companies are looking into generating some or all of their own power needs and selling the excess back to the electricity grid.

"It's too early to tell right now," said Odowichuk, when asked if that kind of generation would offset the need for the 265-megawatt Duke Point plant. "Even if large companies do this on the Island what happens if one day their generators don't work? Are they supposed to just shut down their operations? They will need to go back to the grid."

Hydro has maintained the grid is being taxed by ever-increasing demand on the Island.

The Island consumes 2,100 megawatts of power at any one time, while having the capacity to produce only 690 megawatts at its peak. The rest of the power comes from the mainland.

Most of the power produced on the Island comes from the co-generation facility at Campbell River (240 megawatts), with the rest from Jordan River (170 megawatts), John Hart generating station in Campbell River (126 megawatts) and a series of small generating stations.

To put it in perspective, 690 megawatts can power about 690,000 homes. But considering any one of the Norske Skog pulp mill operations uses 500 megawatts at any one time, there's very little Island production left to go around. Hence the brownout warnings.

B.C. Hydro has spent about $62 million so far on the Duke Point project. Some of that money went toward the purchase of two power-generating turbines.

Jim Parr, spokesman with the Nanaimo Citizens Organizing Committee which has been fighting the Duke Point plant, said that by backing off the project Hydro is all but admitting its predictions were out of whack.

"I think it's very encouraging that they've admitted their forecasts were overstated," he said, though he's quick to point out the project's opponents haven't won the war.

Odowichuk argues that times have changed.

"(The predictions) were probably accurate at the time they were made," she said. "But what's happened in the meantime is PowerSmart (electricity conservation program) has gone great guns in Courtenay and Comox and has now been introduced in Nanaimo and Victoria.

"That's lessening the chance of immediate brownouts, but it's only part of the solution."

In addition, sawmills and pulp mills, which draw heavily from the grid, have been idled by the softwood lumber dispute.

"You hate to see it as a good thing, but it did take a lot of pressure off," she said.

But even if times have changed, Parr said it's going to be very difficult for Hydro to get on with the generation plant.

"If it's not dead, it's definitely under siege and certainly it's on hold," he said, noting there are hurdles in the way.

First, there's the review by the B.C. Utilities Commission, should Hydro decide to go ahead with the plant. That would involve a fundamental cost-benefit analysis of the project to determine if it's needed, and would provide a forum for the citizens groups opposed to the project to air their grievances.

There is also the province's new energy policy, which made it clear that all new power generation facilities will be built by the private sector. That means Hydro would have to find a partner to build the facility.

B.C. Hydro has already lost one private-sector partner for the Island project -- California-based Calpine pulled out in May 2002 citing a range of issues on which Calpine and B.C. Hydro could not agree. But Energy and Mines Minister Richard Neufeld said after releasing the energy policy that he is confident another partner will come along.