BC Hydro releases 2006 IEP

COMMENT: BC Hydro tried to release the 2006 Integrated Electricity Plan in December, and had its chain yanked at the last moment by the provincial government. It was not pretty, and no credible explanation has been forthcoming from Hydro or government. [Government yanks BC Hydro's chain]

Nearly four months later, BC Hydro has apparently revised, rewritten, gutted, whatever, the IEP and it has now been approved for release by the government censors.

Such a milestone for open progressive energy planning in British Columbia!

The IEP itself is actually included as a part of an application to the BC Utilities Commission for a review and approval of the IEP and of the Long Term Acquisition Plan (LTAP) which is included as the last chapter of the IEP. The LTAP "outlines the proposed mix of resources [BC Hydro] plans to use to meet the forecasted demand for the next 10 years."

So what's the plan? BC Hydro expects that it will need to supply between 9300 GWh/y and 13,600 GWh/y in the next ten years. And if it replaces the capacity of Burrard Thermal, it will need to replace an additional 6100 GWh/y. Similar growth is projected for the following ten years out to 2025.

Where will all this new capacity come from? It's a mix, of course, but the most interesting question today, on the release of this government approved vision of BC's energy future, is how much of the new capacity will be fueled by fossil fuels - especially, coal - and whither Site C?

In the first ten years, out to 2015, 6100 GWh/y is projected to come from Demand Side Management (DSM). Another 12,500 GWh/y will be from "Contract Supply".

Contract supply will be largely non-discriminatory based on resource type or fuel type. Instead, under the dictates of the Energy Plan, it will be price that is the primary determinant.

The Energy Plan encourages a voluntary target of 50% "BC Clean" energy, a tepid step in the right direction, but a long way from the regulatory and fiscal environment in which sustainable energy can flourish. In the LTAP, BC Hydro says "Future calls may be adjusted to reflect BC Hydro’s progress to achieving the Energy Plan’s 50 per cent Clean Electricity target." Suggesting in this sentence that at least 50% dirty electricity is envisioned.

The LTAP also wants to facilitate larger projects bidding into future calls. Large projects don't come from distributed wind and small hydro; they come from big gas and coal generators.

So, no clear answer on fossil fuels, but the direction is strongly hinted at. The price of natural gas doesn't indicate a major role for that fuel, and BC Hydro says that future calls will be designed to "mitigate ongoing exposure to rising gas prices." Coal is another question - still relatively inexpensive, and strongly supported by many in government.

For the second ten year period of the 2006 LTAP, BC Hydro says

"The actions in the 2006 LTAP will set the groundwork for meeting this demand in the future, which may be met though further DSM, technologies that become commercially available, large-scale projects such as a large-scale coal-fired generating facility or Site C (if approved by the BC Cabinet before being considered by the BCUC as a source of supply), or additional contracted supply of commercial technologies."

In the LTAP, BC Hydro hopes to complete the Stage 1 studies for Site C, and take it to Stage 2 (Stage 2: Stakeholder Engagement and First Nations Consultation) if Cabinet approves.

Particularly alarming, at least until I understand what is meant by it, is the statement that "BC Hydro will give consideration to the allocation of GHG liability between supplier and BC Hydro." "Any GHG adders will be guided by applicable federal and provincial policy and/or regulations." It sounds like a weakening of position on GHG offsets, in which BC Hydro will only respond to GHG mitigation where it is directed to.

For news reports and comment on the IEP, please see 2006 IEP and LTAP: Comments & News

2006 Integrated Electricity Plan

On March 29, 2006, BC Hydro filed the 2006 Integrated Electricity Plan (IEP) with the BC Utilities Commission, in accordance with the regulator's resource planning guidelines.

• 2006 IEP Application
  
• Challenges and Choices: Planning for a secure electricity future [PDF, 1.3 Mb]
  
• News Release, March 29, 2006
  

• The 2006 Integrated Electricity Plan (IEP) is a long-term plan that outlines how BC Hydro will meet anticipated customer electricity needs over the next 20 years.
  
• The IEP realizes BC Hydro's purpose to provide reliable power at low cost for generations by ensuring that future generations can benefit from an abundant supply of clean and low-cost electricity.
  
• An IEP enables BC Hydro to ensure that a reliable and cost-effective supply of electricity is available to our customers, while considering key environmental and social issues.
  
• BC Hydro produced the 2006 IEP after considering what we heard from a wide range of parties over the past year including a provincial advisory committee, regional stakeholders, First Nations and customers all across the province.
  

BC Hydro provides an IEP every two years to its regulator, the British Columbia Utilities Commission (BCUC). Each time BC Hydro undertakes a review of the plan, it may choose to update the entire plan or focus on a particular part of the plan. BC Hydro's previous IEP was issued on March 31, 2004. The 2006 IEP has been completed (and will subsequently be completed every two years), to support business planning and regulatory processes.

In developing the previous 2004 IEP, BC Hydro sought the input of various interested parties, to help understand and appreciate their perspectives and preferences related to electricity options. This input was incorporated into 2006 IEP process to create a more comprehensive First Nations and stakeholder engagement process. Input received during the IEP guided the planning process and will create the framework for future input into energy planning initiatives.

http://www.bchydro.com/info/epi/epi8970.html

News Release and Backgrounder

March 29, 2006

BC Hydro Submits 2006 Integrated Electricity Plan and Long Term Acquisition Plan to the BC Utilities Commission

VANCOUVER – Clean, reliable, low-cost electricity has been key to British Columbia's economic prosperity and our quality of life for generations. But, as our province continues to grow, the gap between electricity supply and demand is expected to increase.

That is the message contained in BC Hydro's 2006 Integrated Electricity Plan (IEP) which will be filed today with the BC Utilities Commission. It notes that in each of the last five years, British Columbia has been a net importer of electricity. Based on current demand forecasts, the province is expected to need significantly more electricity over the next twenty years.

"The 2006 IEP looks at the challenges we face in meeting the electricity demands of British Columbians going forward, along with the resource options available to help fill the emerging supply-demand gap," said BC Hydro President and CEO, Bob Elton. "With demand on the rise, we need to be planning now to ensure that we preserve the natural competitive advantage that reliable electricity has provided to British Columbians for generations."

Broadly speaking, the options available to British Columbia to fill the forecasted supply gap include conserving more, through conservation initiatives like Power Smart, buying more from Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and building more, either by investing in the heritage generating assets to extend their life and increase their capacity, or investigating potential new generating options.

In addition to the IEP, BC Hydro is filing its Long Term Acquisition Plan (LTAP) which outlines the proposed mix of resources it plans to use to meet the forecasted demand for the next 10 years. The LTAP recommends a resource mix that includes conservation, additional purchases from IPPs and significant investments in the province's heritage generating assets.

The LTAP and the supporting IEP will be filed with the BC Utilities Commission in accordance with the regulator's resource planning guidelines. These documents will be available for viewing on BC Hydro's website. A summary document entitled "Challenges and Choices" will also be available on the website. For a printed copy contact BC Hydro's Media Relations Manager, Elisha Moreno at 604 623-4099.

Contact:
Elisha Moreno
Media Relations manager
Phone: 604 623-4099
elisha.moreno@bchydro.com

2006 Integrated Electricity Plan (IEP) Backgrounder

• In each of the last five years, British Columbia has been a net importer of electricity. In 20 years, as demand grows, the province is expected to need significantly more electricity than it has now. BC Hydro estimates this gap ranges between 25 and 45 per cent, the equivalent electricity required to power 1.4 to 2.5 million new homes.
  
• BC Hydro's 2006 Integrated Electricity Plan (IEP) asks British Columbians to look at the challenges and choices that are fundamental to closing this growing supply-demand electricity gap so British Columbia's energy future can be secure.
  
• Three critical questions are reviewed in the 2006 IEP:
  
  
  
  • What resource options do British Columbians have to meet their growing electricity demands?
    
  • How much of these resources will be needed?
    
  • When will the resources be needed?
    
  
  
• The IEP examines the three fundamental ways that BC Hydro will work with British Columbians to fill the growing electricity gap:
  
  
  
  • Conserving more – through increased Power Smart activities
    
  • Buying more – from independent power producers (IPPs)
    
  • Building more – by investing in "Resource Smart" upgrades to BC Hydro's existing facilities and/or investigating new options for adding generating capability
    
  
  
• The resource options available in British Columbia range from conservation (Power Smart), natural gas, coal, run-of-river small hydro, wind, geothermal, biomass, customer generation and large-scale projects. All of these require choices to made, because each option represents has different benefits, challenges and potential for development.
  
• The decision about the resource options we choose to meet our needs going forward is an important one for all British Columbians. We need to begin the discussion about our energy future now as many options to meet demand in the years ahead will take time to put in place.We look forward to working with the provincial government to engage the people of B.C. in a dialogue about the resource options available now and in the future. By reaching out to customers, communities, stakeholders and First Nations, we can gain their insights and ideas on how to best deal with the choices and challenges that must be addressed to meet our long-term electricity needs.
  
• The development of the 2006 IEP, like all of BC Hydro's business activities, was guided by the provincial government's Energy Plan. The upcoming dialogue with British Columbians will be a timely one given that the Province is currently updating that Energy Plan.
  

http://www.bchydro.com/news/2006/mar/release43489.html