Vancouver Island Electricity Supply Alternatives

Dr. Mark Jaccard, Rose Murphy and Nic Rivers of MK Jaccard and Associates have produced a report entitled Vancouver Island Electricity Supply Alternatives: Natural Gas South Island versus Low Emission North Island

The March 2004 report compares BC Hydro's preferred natural gas strategy for Vancouver Island with a portfolio of more environmentally benign alternatives, referred to as "Low Emission North Island".

From the Introduction:

"A decision is going to be made within the next six months that will determine whether or not a natural gas-based generation strategy is implemented to supply power needs on Vancouver Island starting in 2007. This decision is key because the natural gas strategy will likely preclude other, more environmentally benign alternatives for decades to come. It is expected that if this path is chosen, natural gas generation will dominate supply expansion in the province as a whole.

"The purpose of this study is to perform a MATA comparing natural gas-fired generation with an alternative portfolio of low emission independent power producer (IPP) projects located north of Nanaimo on Vancouver Island. These portfolios are referred to as Natural Gas South Island and Low Emission North Island. The MATA considers financial, environmental and social attributes: unit electricity costs, impact on rates, GHG emissions, other environmental impacts and socio-economic impacts. The impact of uncertainty on the financial aspect will also be estimated."

The authors conclude that Low Emission North Island:

- is lower cost
- has lower rates
- results in fewer GHG emissions
- exposes the taxpayers and electricity customers of BC to less risk from higher natural gas prices and GHG liabilities
- avoids large capital investments that could lock BC into an undesirable electricity future

The report demonstrates the need to perform a multi-attribute trade-off analysis before supply investments are made.

The Call for Tenders (CFT) process has already excluded most of the projects that comprise the Low Emission North Island portfolio. Given this, and the presumption that the CFT process has some degree of acceptability or pre-approval to the BC Utilities Commission, it is unlikely that the full MATA analysis called for in the Jaccard report will be carried out.

The Jaccard report is here