United Nations Climate Change Conference
Montreal, November 28-December 9, 2005

Guy Dauncey of the BC Sustainable Energy Association (www.bcsea.org) has been at the conference, and his blogs from Montreal are a rewarding read. You can find them all at www.bcsea.org.

Here is his last blog and summary of proceedings:

Saturday, December 10th

Well, it is all over, and the story is: SUCCESS!

The last two days have been full of ups and downs, which I have tried to follow and interpret (and occasionally mis-interpret) through a mixture of conversations and following the latest media interpretations via Google News (a recent discovery: if you set up a personal Google News page http://news.google.ca/, you can personalize it to send you only the news stories that carry a particular phrase, such as ‘climate change’ or ‘flying giraffes’. Very handy).

The final deal, which was gaveled down by Stephane Dion at 6.17am this Saturday morning, is (1) that the Kyoto nations have agreed to start discussions to draft a new long-range plan to combat climate change, to start in 2012 when Kyoto expires; and (2) that the larger group of world nations, including the USA, China and India, which signed the 1992 Convention but which have not ratified Kyoto, will hold an open-ended dialogue to discuss ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but with the specific inclusion of a clause that the Americans demanded insisting that the dialogue for these nations not include any talk about new commitments. The world’s delegates cheered when the deal was finally done.

The NGO community is jubilant, full of hugs and tears. The deal is done, and the world can get down to work to tackle the really big task: implementing the actions, as well as the words. In addition to those two agreements listed above, there were also successful conclusions to a lot of side-agreements regarding the detailed implementation of the existing Kyoto Protocol. The best news coverage I’ve seen so far is from Peter Gorrie, in the Toronto Star (link)

My Google News indicator says there are 1,533 related news stories, which tells you how busy the world’s media is with this issue. The Reuters story is also good. (link)

But there was also a second, really significant outcome from the talks. A new informal world standard has emerged for a 30% reduction in emissions by 2020, and an 80% reduction by 2050. The new C20 group of major world cities (including London) has signed onto this goal, as has the European Parliament. This was also the goal set by the youth delegation, which has received a LOT of attention. California has adopted the 80% by 2050 goal, and President Chirac has said that France and the other developed nations should strive for a 75% reduction by 2050.

Personally, given what I know of the science, I don’t think this is good enough: I believe we should aim for an 80% reduction by 2025, but for what’s politically achievable right now, that places me in cloud cuckoo land. I’ll still hold to that goal, while trumpeting the 30% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 goals as fantastic.

These are not legally binding goals, of course; but they set the tenor of the direction in which we should be heading. What’s great about them is that the small numbers, such as a 6% reduction, allow people to think that we can continue with business as usual, while just fiddling with a few details. An 80% reduction calls for a complete rethink of the way we use energy, travel, and live, and opens the door to a future designed entirely along the lines of green sustainability (unless it’s done with nuclear, which is still in play).

Friday was full of excitement, as it seemed as if everything might come off the rails, at some points. Six months ago, when we knew that COP-11 would happen in Montreal, Elizabeth May of the Sierra Club invited various high-level people to attend, with the hope and intention that it would involve the mainstream American media and others, and awaken the USA to what was happening. The Sierra Club’s strategy worked brilliantly, not only because there has been a very strong presence from US city mayors, California State, and other leaders, who have made it quite clear that they are behind Kyoto, and more (195 US cities have now signed onto the full Kyoto goals), but also because Elizabeth’s trump card came up good when Bill Clinton decided just 3 days ago that yes, he would attend.

This threw everyone into an excited tizzy, and when the big moment arrived, around 2pm on Friday, everyone went into the big plenary room, where all of the chairs had to be turned round, so that Clinton would not speak under the formal UNFCCC logo. Then we all had to leave the room while it was ‘swept’ (not for litter, but for aliens from Mars), and then we all trooped back in, and Clinton immediately received a big standing ovation, before he’d even opened his mouth.

In his speech, he showed his normal flair with numbers, examples, policies and practices (it is just impossible to imagine George W giving a similar kind of speech), and really emphasized the economic benefits of greenhouse gas reduction, saying that the opponents of Kyoto were ‘flat wrong’ when they said that it would kill jobs and destroy the economy, which is one the US government’s main excuses for not signing on. (see here for a full report).

When he said that ‘"We know from every passing year we get more and more objective data that if we had a serious, disciplined effort to apply on a large scale existing clean energy and energy conservation technologies that we could meet and surpass the Kyoto targets easily in a way that would strengthen, not weaken, our economies’, he received spontaneous cheers and full applause (in which I was a very vocal participant). This is really important, since if we can persuade people on the economic arguments, the remaining few ‘skeptic’ doubts on the science arguments suddenly don’t matter.

The US delegation was really miffed at Clinton showing up and stealing the show, and they subsequently walked out of the negotiations, threatening to veto the whole thing. All that they were being asked to do under the existing text for the 1992 Parties to COP was agree to a dialogue, but no, even that was too much. The NGO community held a contest, as to what better word might please them, such as a ‘thingy’. Someone suggested ‘lunch at the ranch’, but the US delegates weren’t up for lunch with anyone, unless it was on their terms.

However, their walk-out did not play well in the US media, and after having a call to the White House, they came back into the play, and finally agreed to participate in the dialogue as long as it did not discuss commitments. As one NGO leader put it, in the stand-off over the planet’s future, the US blinked first. They caved in to the almost unanimous global pressure from all the other countries, and as a result, we now have a twin-track process which allows us to chart our way into a safer, more sustainable world.

On a personal level, Thursday was a wild day for me, and very rewarding. I was invited to speak to the youth delegation, which got them very pumped, and then I did a 15’ web-cast for the UNFCCC about the BCSEA, and a ’12 Step Process to make BC 100% free of Fossil Fuels’. This went down really well, and I had a big crowd listening at the end.

This lead to a meeting with the South African Minister of the Environment (who is trying to fight off the pressure to go nuclear), and with David Walsh, the Environment Critic for the opposition Liberal Party in the Alberta Legislature (who is trying to get a voice of sanity into Alberta politics), a radio interview for a German station and a film interview for a future film on activism and climate change. I ended up in conversations from 3:30pm till 10pm that night; and enjoying every moment of it.

Friday was equally busy, as I shared in presenting a seminar on Green Heat with Bill Eggertson in the morning, which was poorly attended, but successful nonetheless. And there have been many other highlights, such as listening to the City of London’s presentation by their Deputy Mayor Nicky Gavron. But that’s going to have to wait till I do a final wrap-up blog, since now I’ve got to get my skates on, and get organized for my flight back to Victoria.

So over and out!
Guy

Read Guy's other blogs from Montreal at www.bcsea.org