Sustainable Fossil Fuels, by Marc Jaccard
Unusual suspect in the quest for clean, enduring energy

Oil, natural gas unlikely to be replaced soon by other power sources
Don Cayo, Vancouver Sun, 22-Nov-2005
SFU professor flies in face of Chicken Littles of fossil fuels
Don Cayo, Vancouver Sun, 23-Nov-2005
A troubling scenario awaits if we keep on our current energy-use path
Don Cayo, Vancouver Sun, 24-Nov-2005

By Don Cayo
Vancouver Sun
22-Nov-2005

It's not the dinosaur you may have thought. A new book by SFU professor Mark Jaccard argues that the future of fossil fuels is still bright, as there are few practical energy alternatives that could meet global needs within the foreseeable future.

Can the world assure sustainable energy for the century ahead by turning its back on oil, gas and coal? Can we conserve enough of the massive amounts of fuel we squander, and create most of what we really need from renewables like sun, wind and water, or from clean-burning hydrogen, or even nuclear fission or fusion?

Not likely, says Mark Jaccard, a professor of resource and environmental management at Simon Fraser University.

Until now, Jaccard has spent most of his high-profile career touting those very options. But after a lot of research and reflection he has changed his mind. These "usual suspects" aren't the best bet for the next 100 years, he writes in a new book that's sure to raise hackles among his many colleagues to whom oil is an anathema.

Jaccard argues in Sustainable Fossil Fuel: The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy that, as the title suggests, the best path for the future is a variation of the one the world is already on. Oil, although increasingly from unconventional sources, will continue to play a big role, while the use of natural gas and coal will more than double.

What about the well-known drawbacks of fossil fuels -- that their supply diminishes over time, and that they pollute the air? And what's wrong with renewables, and, especially, with hugely cutting back on energy use to take pressure off its supply?

In Jaccard's analysis the world won't run out of oil, gas and coal for a long, long time. The key questions hinge on know-how (How much of the vast resources can we figure out how to tap into?) and price (How much are we willing to pay?). And the same two factors -- technology and economics -- will determine how cleanly we can burn future fossil fuels.

These same questions apply, of course, to conservation, to renewables like biomass, wind and water, and to the inexhaustible potential of hydrogen and nuclear.

Jaccard examines these options at length. He finds each of them not entirely wanting, but limited in their ability to displace fossil fuels.

He notes that the rich world has already gained a lot from using energy more efficiently. "Energy intensity" -- the amount of economic value derived from each unit of fuel -- has soared since the 1950s.

And a lot more saving is possible. Not only is a lot of energy squandered in uses of questionable value, but up to 5/6ths of a fuel's potential is lost in the inefficient conversion of primary energy sources into convenient secondary forms.

Yet, he says, the world won't see the boon that conservationists predict if only we do a better job of mending our wasteful ways. It is not just a matter of technical issues, he argues, but behavioural ones as well.

For one thing, when energy efficiency increases, so does the tendency to use it for new or bigger things. Witness the growth in the size of vehicles and the distances that North Americans drive them following a sharp, but temporary, retraction as a result of the oil shocks of the 1970s. Similarly, the advent of things like energy-efficient fridges tempts consumers to buy a separate one to chill the beer or cool the wine, and so on.

This rebound effect helps explain "the explosion of new energy-using services, including outdoor patio heaters, spas, extra-large sport utility vehicles, decorative natural gas fireplaces, coffee mug heaters, desk-top water coolers, in-home entertainment systems, indoor and outdoor decorative lighting and ... the back-massage chair, to name just a few." And, "More efficient vehicles may make people willing to live further from where they work."

Nor do people always adopt new ideas just because they're available. He cites his own experience with high-priced, energy-efficient light bulbs that are now tucked away in a drawer, as they are in thousands of homes, because they don't fit many lamp sockets and his wife doesn't like the light they cast.

Then there's the matter of a couple of billion poor people on the planet -- people destined in the scenarios that he cites to become much more prosperous over the next century. One of the first things they can be expected to do is stop their inefficient burning of wood or charcoal for cooking and heating, and turn rapidly to modern energy sources. So even if the rich world succeeds in massively reducing its own energy use, the savings will be overwhelmed by increased use in developing countries.

Nuclear's potential faces challenges such as investor antsiness and a long lead time to get it on line, he says. And it's currently so far behind fossil fuels that, given the 33-year lifespan of most plants, as many as five a week would have to be brought online for it to dominate by the year 2100.

That pace of building is unimaginable, given political and economic realities. Because of the horrific potential of an accident or terrorist incident, no matter how highly unlikely those may be, people in developed countries strongly oppose the building of more reactors. And in poorer countries where the urgently desired benefits might persuade people to accept the risk, the rich countries that have the technology don't want to share it for fear it will be used to proliferate nuclear arms.

Strikes against hydrogen, a secondary fuel, include the massive amounts of primary energy needed to create it, and the cost and complexity of establishing a distribution network for the hard-to-store fuel.

Storage is also an issue for most renewables -- wind, water, and sunlight. Because these sources can produce power only intermittently, they must either be relegated to a role as fairly small supplementary sources, or else huge and expensive storage capabilities will have to be built. All three, but especially wind and water, need specific sites that usually aren't found near the places where power is consumed. As the best sites are developed, more marginal -- and more expensive -- ones will have to be found.

Modern biomass energy production -- the efficient burning or conversion of wood or farm waste, as opposed to the dirty and wasteful open fires or crude stoves that proliferate in the developing world -- is relatively cheap, as long as it's small-scale and able to use waste. But if it reaches the point where raw fuel has to be grown just for that purpose, it'll require huge tracts of land that won't be available for other uses. And, as with the other renewables, it'll cost more and more as the best sites for fuel production are taken and marginal ones are pressed into use.

Jaccard still sees a growing role for conservation and all of the renewable technologies. But he sees no chance they'll come close to displacing hydrocarbons as the prime energy source.

dcayo@obg.canwest.com

Tomorrow: Why oil, gas and coal are the best bet for a clean, sustainable energy future. (link)

- - -

Sustainable Fossil Fuels: The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy

by Mark Jaccard,

Simon Fraser University

The book's first printing will be available Nov. 27 by direct order only from Cambridge University Press, 100 Brook Hill Drive, West Nyack, NY 10994.

Toll-free 800-872-7423.
Fax 914-937-4712.
http://us.cambridge.org

It will be available in bookstores in Canada Jan. 1, 2006. Paperback: $33.95. Hardcover: $94.95

First in a three-part series (Part 2, Part 3)

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

TOP

By Don Cayo
Vancouver Sun
23-Nov-2005

Second in a three-part series (Part 1, Part 3)

The message from most sustainable-energy advocates is that the world is about to run out of fossil fuels.

Some of them seem to believe that this will happen none too soon -- that we burn so much of it so carelessly that we're poisoning the planet.

And then there's Mark Jaccard, a professor of resource and environmental management at Simon Fraser University who has earned his spurs many times over as a sustainable-energy advocate. His about-to-be-released book, Sustainable Fossil Fuel: The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy, argues that oil, gas and coal will -- and deserve to -- remain the dominate energy supply at least until the end of this century.

Why? Because there's easily enough of all three to last the next 100 years, and far beyond. Because they will remain the fuels of choice for a great many uses not only in the rich world, where they already dominate, but also in poor countries where billions now rely on smoky, inefficient wood or charcoal fires for cooking and heating. And because it's both possible and affordable to use fossil fuels cleanly, with minimal harm to the environment.

That's not to say Jaccard endorses the status quo. Indeed, he says the world is on an unsustainable course -- one that, if unchecked, will see energy use grow 324 per cent by 2100, with coal consumption expanding 6.5 times to provide almost half the primary energy.

His preferred scenario, which will require judicious planning and policies if it's to come about, is also hydrocarbon intensive. It foresees increased energy use of 280 per cent, and the near-doubling of the role of fossil fuels, mostly coal.

Where will it come from? And how can it be used cleanly?

Jaccard differentiates sharply between fossil fuel reserves -- the amount that we know where and how to access and that we can afford to get out of the ground -- and fossil fuel resources. The latter is what's there, no matter whether we have the affordable technology to get it today.

Those two estimates are far apart. Coal resources are seven trillion tonnes, or 9.5 times the figure for coal reserves. The conventional oil resource pool is twice as large as the reserves; the unconventional oil resource is four times larger; and the natural gas resource, both conventional and not, is three times larger.

"If current consumption trends and fossil fuel reserves both remained static," Jaccard writes, "oil reserves would not be exhausted until the latter half of this century, natural gas reserves would last into the next century, and coal reserves would last 200 years.

"When the focus shifts to resources, at static consumption levels oil would last 200 years, natural gas 500 and coal 2,000."

However, given growth predictions based on current trends, "then the oil resource would last under 150 years, natural gas under 300 and coal under 400."

But Jaccard's test of sustainability isn't just a matter of supply. It also involves economics and ecology -- the impact of the world's energy use must be reasonably benign for the people and the planet.

So key questions are, do we know how, and can we afford, to tap into more of the resource than is generally assumed? Another is, can we use the fuels we get cleanly, with minimal harm to human health and the environment?

Jaccard's answer to all is yes.

He acknowledges that geologists may be right to note that the world is using up conventional oil resources faster than most people realize. But the economist in him observes that this need not be the catastrophe that's often portrayed. Scarcity is bound to raise prices. But higher prices will spur innovation, innovation will increase supply, and new supplies will moderate the price -- an economic cycle we've seen time and again.

Thus, although recovering unconventional oil is unquestionably more costly than tapping into conventional reserves, it will become ever-cheaper as new technologies are perfected and scaled up.

He points out, for example, that the cost of North Sea oil, once a cutting-edge technology, has plunged from $35 a barrel in the late 1970s to $15 today. And he forecasts that similar kinds of savings are in the cards not only for unconventional oil recovery, but also for natural gas and coal. And the eventual prices are not likely to be much higher than we pay today -- with, of course, a continuation of the periodic short-term fluctuations that feed the cries of Chicken Littles.

The key to using fossil fuels cleanly, he says, will hinge on how they are used.

A huge point often overlooked in rich countries is the immense and beneficial impact that will occur as billions of the world's poor switch from the worst-possible use of biomass -- unhealthy and wasteful open fires or poor-quality stoves -- to cleaner and much more efficient modern fuels. That's a priority for every population as their incomes improve, Jaccard says, and it will hugely lessen outdoor pollution and dramatically improve indoor air quality, which contributes to as many as a million deaths a year.

And, just as importantly, both modern biomass and fossil fuels will be increasingly used to create ultra-clean forms of secondary energy -- electricity and hydrogen -- to heat our homes and offices, power our vehicles, and much more. The technology exists to do this with little pollution from the primary fuels, and it, too, will become more cost-effective over time.

dcayo@png.canwest.com

THURSDAY: What will it take to ensure that we are on a sustainable energy path? (link)

TOP

"There is considerable evidence that our current energy system is on an unsustainable path," he writes in an about-to-be-released book, Sustainable Fossil Fuels: The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy. Problems include emissions that undermine human health, cause acid rain and world-wide climate change; risks from radiation leaks or petroleum spills; and vast tracts of land and water despoiled by large-scale projects. As things are going now, he sees these problems only getting worse.

On the plus side, however, Jaccard foresees a big drop by 2100 in how much energy it takes to generate each dollar of GDP. But a quadrupling of per capita wealth -- also a plus, though a challenging one -- and a 75-per-cent increase in population will still strain energy supplies beyond what can be sustained.

Specifically, he sees the current path leading to a doubling of the biomass, mainly wood, used in scores of poor countries for cooking and heating fires that pollute the air and endanger human health. He sees a 17-fold increase, but still too little, in "modern biomass," including farm waste, converted into clean, green energy sources. Hydro development will focus too much on big, land-drowning projects and too little on small benign ones, and it will fall well short of its potential role in a more optimal mix of energy sources. Wind, solar and geothermal will similarly grow substantially, but not enough, and wave and tidal power will go nowhere without policy-driven help.

His preferred scenario, which he says would be sustainable, is based on several subtle shifts that, over the next 100 years, add up to big results.

It includes a 33-per-cent reduction in traditional biomass, and a 26-fold increase in modern biomass, which would produce far cleaner and more efficient results from the same amount of raw material needed to fuel the current-path scenario. He sees 5.5 times more power coming from hydro, but most of the increase from small projects that do little or no environmental harm. He sees good policy bringing about 33 per cent more wind power, and twice as much solar and geothermal power as would otherwise evolve. And he sees tides and waves tapped to provide about two per cent of the energy needed by this richer and more productive world.

Use of fossil fuels would nearly double under his preferred scenario, but they'd slip from 83 per cent dominance today to 57 per cent in 2100 (as opposed to 66 per cent under the current-trends scenario).

What will change more dramatically is what is done with much of that fossil fuel. Jaccard sees the greatest growth for coal, which is plentiful and widely available around the world. But he sees it used in zero-gasification processes that will be able to produce electricity at comparable cost to other new sources, and hydrogen at lower cost than almost anything else. And electricity and hydrogen will come to play a huge role as secondary energy sources, including fueling much of the transportation of people and goods -- a market now totally dominated by oil.

What needs to be done to get off the path that isn't unsustainable and onto one that is?

Jaccard calls for a mix of approaches in national strategies. Voluntary programs spurred by education, though unlikely to do the whole job, could have a role, as could prescriptive approaches and financial disincentives like a tax on pollution.

But he relies most heavily on market-oriented solutions -- especially emissions caps with tradeable permits, and niche market regulations.

He gets into a detailed discussion of how caps could start out fairly high, requiring only modest reductions in overall emissions, and be strengthened over time to accomplish big gains fairly painlessly.

The niche market regulations, a new concept not yet in use anywhere, would foster projects, large and small, to capture and permanently store carbon by-products of combustion, and it would spread the cost among all producers of carbon emissions.

Internationally, Jaccard sees difficulty, if not impossibility, getting agreements for prescriptive approaches such as the Kyoto Accord, which is said to be merely a first step and is not stringent enough to actually reverse the build-up of greenhouse gases. He reviews a list of alternative proposals such as international trading of emissions permits, equity provisions that ensure compliance but provide a financial break to developing countries, an international carbon tax, various mechanisms for technology transfer from the developed world to the poor, and even bi-lateral emission-reduction agreements between countries like the U.S. and China.

Without really settling on or rejecting any of these, he remains optimistic.

"Energy policy at the global level might never seem as logical and coherent as some would wish, but this is no reason to despair," he writes. "The realities of this level simply require creative thinking, a willingness to compromise, and an ability to seize opportunities as they arise.

"Rising incomes in developing countries provide such opportunities because of the enormous energy investments that will occur over the coming decades. Likewise, if current high oil prices are sustained, the energy market will attract substantial investment in developed countries.

"These two developments create an unprecedented opportunity to shape the character of the future global energy system . . . that we can't afford to miss."

dcayo@png.canwest.com

- - -

Sustainable Fossil Fuels: The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy

by Mark Jaccard, Simon Fraser University

The book's first printing will be available Nov. 27 by direct order only from Cambridge University Press, 100 Brook Hill Drive, West Nyack, NY 10994.

Toll-free 800-872-7423.
Fax 914-937-4712.
http://us.cambridge.org

It will be available in bookstores in Canada Jan. 1, 2006. Paperback: $33.95.

Hardcover: $94.95

Last in a three-part series (Part 1, Part 2)

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

TOP