Premier's fight for the planet unveiled

Miro Cernetig
Vancouver Sun
Monday, October 15, 2007

A few weeks ago, Nobel Peace Prize winner Al Gore came to town and captivated Vancouver's elite with a slick PowerPoint presentation showing the world's glaciers melting, cities flooding and the other doomsday scenarios associated with global warming.

But there's another global-warming PowerPoint slide show now being given around town by the B.C. government that people may find even more sobering.

It's not nearly as Hollywood or entertaining as the former vice-president's.

But it does come with some of the long-awaited specifics of how Premier Gordon Campbell's home-grown fight to save the planet is going to change our lives on the local level.

Specifically, the government is presenting to select audiences (who don't need to pay $250 a ticket as they did to see Gore) its first crack at estimating how much each sector of the B.C. economy must reduce its carbon footprint by 2020.

By then, the premier's broad goal is to reduce provincial CO2 emissions by one-third of today's 67 million tonnes -- to about 45 million tonnes annually.

But the economy grows, thankfully, which means by 2020 our provincial province would be expected to emit about 80- to 85-million tonnes of CO2 if nothing was done. This means, to meet its target, in the next dozen years the government must actually find reductions in the range of 35- to 40-million tonnes of CO2 pumped into the atmosphere. It entails a gargantuan shift in public policy that presents equally profound lifestyle changes and economic costs in the decades to come.

Here is a glimpse of the government's PowerPoint show being given by deputy minister Graham Whitmarsh, who is running the climate change agenda for Campbell. In the next dozen years the government expects:

* From seven to 10 million tonnes of CO2 reductions from the oil and gas sector plus other industries. It expects the bulk of this to be accomplished by industry buying and trading carbon credits on the new carbon market B.C. has joined, with California and other western states. There are hopes that B.C. will integrate into Europe's carbon-trading market, too.

* Six- to nine-million CO2 tonnes reduced through efficiencies in transportation. Victoria expects these savings from the adoption of California tailpipe emission standards, a greater use of public transportation and the expected increase in the use of hybrid and smaller vehicles. It also sees a trend to less driving as B.C planners are encouraged to create satellite cities that will make it easier to work close to home and avoid commutes.

* Seven- to nine million CO2 tonnes from electricity savings. This is expected to derive from conservation, the promise of no new coal-fired generation power plants and requiring BC Hydro to buy carbon offsets if it buys dirty power, such as electricity from Alberta's coal-fired plants. There are also stiff new rules for carbon sequestration -- essentially an experimental business of pumping greenhouse gas into the ground forever.

* Two million to three million tonnes of CO2 cut through better waste management, primarily by using methane (considered a far more damaging greenhouse gas than CO2) gas for power generation or at least burning it off.

* Finally, about two million tonnes of CO2 saved by fast-tracking construction of green buildings that better conserve energy and have higher densities, considered key if energy-hungry cities such as Metro Vancouver are to become greener.

In the next few weeks, the government will choose a firm that will build a sophisticated model to give specific details of how and where all these CO2 savings might be achieved. That will supposedly help the government set interim CO2-reduction targets for 2012 and 2016, information that B.C.'s very nervous energy industry -- not to mention the New Democratic Party -- are eagerly awaiting to gauge how soon the government expects action and what the costs might be.

Do a little math and you will note that the CO2 reductions the government has identified are also still many millions of tonnes short of the needed cuts. Where will the remainder come from?

The government expects help in deciding that from its climate action team, a blue-ribbon panel of experts now being put together. Given the enormity of what is planned, it will be a relatively small group -- from as few as 10 to as many as two dozen members -- who are expected to offer sage policy advice on where to find CO2 savings.

Also, missing from the government's PowerPoint show -- a glaring omission that can't last much longer -- is what is the cost of eliminating 35 million to 40 million tonnes of CO2 in so short a time?

The answer -- at least so far -- is nobody really knows.

In its own calculations to make government itself carbon-neutral, the government is budgeting paying $25 a tonne in credits for the CO2 created by bureaucrats' travel. Extrapolate that per tonne value of CO2 on the 40 million tonnes that the B.C. government wants to eliminate a year and it adds up to a cool $1-billion annually.

But that's a far too simplistic way of calculating the costs of this new green policy, which is taking B.C. and the global economy into uncharted accounting methods.

Some industries, for example, may benefit by being able to quickly and efficiently reduce their carbon footprints for a few cents per tonne of CO2. An example might be landfill operations that burn methane easily or oil companies that find it relatively cheap to inject greenhouse gases into empty oil and gas wells. Those companies may actually be able to create carbon credits and sell them in the emerging carbon market, for profit.

Others, with more difficult challenges, may have to spend heavily on experimental CO2-sequestration technology or buy carbon offsets in the new carbon market, at costs that are still unknown.

One thing does seem increasingly clear, though.

This is not a policy that will be forgotten by the premier by the next throne speech. Like California's Arnold Schwarzenegger, whom he has consulted in fighting climate change, and Al Gore whose "planetary emergency warning" he believes, B.C.'s premier has staked his political legacy on fighting climate change.

There will be legislation in a few months putting into law exact targets for greenhouse gas reductions and penalties for those who don't comply. B.C.'s next provincial budget will introduce significant incentives for going green.

We've been thrust to the front line in fighting global warming, like it or not. What we now should demand is specifics and open debate on the road ahead. This is not a time for any more closed-door policy-making -- or hot air.

mcernetig@png.canwest.com

Details on B.C.'s plan to save the planet

All sectors will need to make significant changes to meet B.C.'s targets for carbon dioxide reductions, which will amount to a cut of 35 to 40 million tonnes by 2020.

B.C.'s projected CO2 emissions by 2020:
80 - 85 million tonnes

B.C. government's CO2 target by 2020:
45 million tonnes

Needed CO2 cuts:
35 - 40 million tonnes

CO2 cuts the government has already identified:
24 - 33 million tonnes

Where the CO2 savings are expected:

7 to 10 million tonnes
Fossil fuel production and other industry

6 to 9 million tonnes
Transport: More transit, hybrid vehicles

7 to 9 million tonnes
Electricity: More conservation

2 to 3 million tonnes
Waste: Better waste management

2 million tonnes
Residential & Commercial Buildings

Not yet determined
Agriculture

7 to 16 million tonnes
CO2 cuts yet to be identified

© The Vancouver Sun 2007